Conservative Denial and Wishful Thinking

Denial and Wishful Thinking

I quite liked David Cameron's speech. As one of the media commentators noted 'he has realised he doesn't work as a man of the people so now he is just telling it like it is.' It was a good observation. He looked and sounded workmanlike. His messages appealed to his Conservative membership audience but also had the scope to appeal to a wider audience but without attempting to please everyone and therefore diluting appeal to all.

Unfortunately, you could say exactly the same about Ed Miliband. So whilst both leaders have pleased their own crowd, their core-vote, they are both left competing for the none of the above vote, both with reasonably compelling messages.

On the one hand, Dave is talking about dismantling some of the wilder excesses of the welfare state - requiring the unemployed to work for benefits and potentially withdrawing benefits from younger people who are not in training whilst out of work.

On the other, you have Ed embracing Socialism and constantly reminding everyone of his pedigree by lashing out repeatedly at the Daily Mail for picking on his deceased Father.

All in all, things are shaping up nicely for a long running and stimulating scrap as we head towards to the 2015 General Election.

But. Considering the electoral arithmetic - with the Conservatives requiring a larger share of the vote than Labour to win a majority, I simply cannot understand the degree of complacency that exists in the Conservative supporting media.

The general consensus seems to be that now that Ed has turned back to Socialism it is only a matter of time until the electorate comprehend the full horror and implications of his direction and reject him wholesale. And, furthermore, it is equally inevitable that those wayward Ukipers will see the light, decide that their vote for UKIP would usher in Ed and his nasty socialism and put aside all the abuse that they have suffered from the Conservative leadership and luminaries aside - and vote Conservative..

I am not so sure.

My reckoning is that for every UKIP vote that Dave can win back, Ed can win a Lib Dem vote to Labour on a similar basis - few think that a Lab/Lib Coalition is credible in 2015.

And equally, for every none of the above vote that can be persuaded of the evils of Miliband Socialism, there is another that can be persuaded that in a post crash world, Capitalism is discredited and the answer must be some kind of reconstructed Socialism.

Dave now needs to develop and demonstrate a ruthless, inspiring, competition crushing energy and conviction or yet again he will disappoint.

A Conservative majority at the next election is possible but only if Dave makes it happen - the kind of entitlement expectation that led him to lose the unlose-able 2010 General Election will end in complete disaster in 2015..